We looked at both the behavior of MA and GOOG when we described what we thought would happen with V. We can look back now three weeks later and get a feel for whether are predictions were accurate and I would say they were, lets look at the MA and GOOG IPO charts to get a clearer look.
While V seems to have come out of the gate a bit slower it also seems to be holding on to its price a bit better than its equally lauded IPO buddies. Indeed, when you consider how embattled the economy is one might say that V has been a bit more impressive than GOOG or MA. This week’s Jump has undoubtedly been affected by the head of China’s Sovereign funds announcement on 60 Minutes that he would be… “buying over $100 million worth of shares in Visa.”
Strong endorsement that seems to have leveled out any slack in share price that can usually cause a pullback in week three after an IPO.
If I might go off topic and speak to the fear of Chinese investment in US markets in one word… Don’t. Look, the the Chinese are not investing in America as some kind of covert weapon as suggested on 60 Minutes. They referred to a so called economic nuclear option, which is about as likely as Mao coming back from the dead and instituting another great leap forward. Why is it unlikely? For one, because it would be easier and cheaper to build a weapon that would be more effective at doing what all the doomsayers claim these investments are for.
Think about it, they just invested 100 million dollars in Visa, a portion of the hundred billion they have invested in the US. The survival of the Chinese, and all the countries with serious economies, are tied to the success of the US economy. Trying the economic nuclear option would most likely nuke their own as well. And while we may not thrive in the wake of said nuking, we would surely fair better than a country that could see millions die of starvation in the event of an economic meltdown.
Mark my words, anyone who believes otherwise does not understand the precariousness of a country that is bigger than the US with about half the arable land. They need stability for survival, we need it so we can have cool cars, I like cool cars so don’t get riled up. Betraying these needs is beyond the bureaucratic fastidiousness of a leadership that is less concerned with power than not getting killed by any one of a dozen eventualities that a country dealing with the pressures that China must face continually and without relent. Whether the Chinese Government is right or wrong in their dealings is for another column, but they are definitely not interested in subverting our economy.